Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-23 181.656076 220.755014 269.349831 335.344897 424.499358 5.436241e+02 7.200185e+02
2025-03-30 136.494124 181.034302 243.622159 341.820033 499.865603 7.603902e+02 1.263753e+03
2025-04-06 113.676884 160.160470 231.438026 356.138763 587.417994 1.046496e+03 2.203558e+03
2025-04-13 95.186262 139.754066 212.383334 349.938803 634.485968 1.293429e+03 3.420847e+03
2025-04-20 87.877615 134.598440 215.737206 383.225533 775.710879 1.874633e+03 6.900291e+03
2025-04-27 81.404935 129.190052 216.811687 412.025815 926.026081 2.671270e+03 1.480720e+04
2025-05-04 75.383922 123.256558 215.205197 434.315818 1076.965391 3.726778e+03 3.465082e+04
2025-05-11 69.604701 116.659119 210.630390 447.981759 1215.520731 5.046609e+03 9.104725e+04
2025-05-18 64.006889 109.460281 203.195708 451.863545 1327.940330 6.572802e+03 2.815615e+05
2025-05-25 58.424448 101.463562 192.444768 443.306054 1390.915741 8.043434e+03 1.040802e+06
2025-06-01 53.341225 93.802040 181.083975 429.598565 1426.028818 9.516917e+03 6.429716e+06
2025-06-08 48.897409 86.916070 170.378099 414.792077 1448.650516 1.109334e+04 3.293345e+08
2025-06-15 47.995707 87.477376 177.798154 460.803604 1829.642139 2.066699e+04 NaN
2025-06-22 45.182758 83.590990 173.668659 467.965357 2020.774252 3.061777e+04 NaN
2025-06-29 43.259236 81.403210 173.447404 489.241067 2341.919685 5.379854e+04 NaN
2025-07-06 40.347417 76.648430 165.663347 479.745380 2442.331757 7.468228e+04 NaN
2025-07-13 39.814792 77.253905 172.432742 530.565533 3134.494003 2.257474e+05 NaN
2025-07-20 38.976428 77.029600 176.885021 575.067325 3924.713844 9.471974e+05 NaN
2025-07-27 37.851595 75.973805 178.745947 609.832413 4760.716539 7.933634e+06 NaN
2025-08-03 36.454909 74.085832 177.774108 631.282239 5544.260353 1.106257e+09 NaN
2025-08-10 34.825657 71.441476 174.019892 637.393503 6158.533339 NaN NaN
2025-08-17 32.934186 67.952486 167.067134 623.931856 6413.338596 NaN NaN
2025-08-24 31.046018 64.312531 159.140373 602.451889 6472.545805 NaN NaN